November 5, 2024 - Washington, D.C. – The latest Ipsos Core Political poll finds that Harris and Trump are locked in a tight race among likely voters with one day before the election. The poll, conducted in the final weekend before the election, also shows that Americans remain most concerned about the economy, followed by political extremism or threats to democracy, and immigration. On the issues, Americans prefer former President Donald Trump’s approach immigration, foreign conflict, and the economy; meanwhile, they prefer Vice President Kamala Harris’ approach to healthcare and political extremism or threats to democracy. Trump’s lead over Harris on the economy, however, has slightly narrowed compared to late October.

Download Poll

While most Americans say they disapprove of the way President Joe Biden is handling his job, significantly fewer say the same of Harris. And, when it comes to favorability, slightly more Americans say they have a generally favorable view of Harris than Trump. Further, Harris has a stronger net favorability rating than Trump.

Detailed Findings:

1. Harris and Trump are locked in a dead heat with one day before the election.

• Half of likely voters say they would vote for Harris if the election were held today, and 48% say they would vote for Trump.
• Just 2% of likely voters say they would vote for some other candidate.

2. While the majority of Americans disapprove of how Biden is handling his job, significantly fewer disapprove of how Harris is handling her job. Further, slightly more Americans say they have a favorable view of Harris than Trump.

• Nearly three in five (57%) Americans say they disapprove of how Biden is handling his job as president, while just 37% say they approve. These readings are stable from late October. By party affiliation, 78% of Democrats, 34% of independents, and 5% of Republicans say they approve of Biden.
• Comparably, just under half of Americans (48%) say they disapprove of how Harris is handling her job as vice president. Two in five (40%) Americans say they approve.
• Forty-five percent of Americans say they are generally favorable towards Harris, while 42% say they are generally favorable towards Trump. Of note, Harris’ net favorability (-5%) is higher than Trump’s net favorability (-12%) among all Americans.

3. Americans are most concerned about the economy, followed by political extremism and immigration. By party affiliation, however, Democrats are most concerned about political extremism while Republicans are most concerned about the economy.

• A quarter (26%) of Americans say the economy, unemployment, and jobs are the most important problems facing the U.S. today. Following the economy, Americans say political extremism or threats to democracy (21%) and immigration (14%) are the next most important problems.
• Similar to Americans overall, Republicans and independents are most likely to say the economy is the most important problem facing the U.S. today (34% and 26%, respectively). However, Republicans say immigration (29%) is their second most important problem while independents say the same of political extremism or threats to democracy (22%).
• Democrats are most likely to say political extremism or threats to democracy (37%), followed by the economy (20%) are the most important problem facing the U.S. today.

4. Americans prefer Trump’s approach to immigration, foreign conflict, and the economy. But they prefer Harris’ approach to healthcare and political extremism or threats to democracy. Notably, Trump’s lead over Harris on the economy has narrowed by seven points from late October.

• Americans are more likely to say they prefer Trump’s approach than Harris’ approach to immigration (+11 Trump), foreign conflict (+9 Trump), and the economy (+4 Trump).
• Yet Americans are more likely to say they prefer Harris’ approach than Trump’s approach to healthcare (+14 Harris) and political extremism or threats to democracy (+6 Harris).
• Trump’s net lead over Harris on the economy has softened slightly from late October (+4 Trump vs. +11 Trump, respectively).

About the Study

This Ipsos poll was conducted November 1-3, 2024 by Ipsos using the probability-based KnowledgePanel®. This poll is based on a nationally representative probability sample of 1,242 general population adults aged 18 or older.

The margin of sampling error for this study is plus or minus 3.0 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, for results based on the entire sample of adults. The margin of sampling error takes into account the design effect, which was 1.13. The margin of sampling error is higher and varies for results based on other sub-samples. In our reporting of the findings, percentage points are rounded off to the nearest whole number. As a result, percentages in a given table column may total slightly higher or lower than 100%. In questions that permit multiple responses, columns may total substantially more than 100%, depending on the number of different responses offered by each respondent.

The survey was conducted using KnowledgePanel®, the largest and most well-established online probability-based panel that is representative of the adult U.S. population. Our recruitment process employs a scientifically developed addressed-based sampling methodology using the latest Delivery Sequence File of the USPS – a database with full coverage of all delivery points in the US. Households invited to join the panel are randomly selected from all available households in the U.S. Persons in the sampled households are invited to join and participate in the panel. Those selected who do not already have internet access are provided a tablet and internet connection at no cost to the panel member. Those who join the panel and who are selected to participate in a survey are sent a unique password-protected log-in used to complete surveys online. As a result of our recruitment and sampling methodologies, samples from KnowledgePanel® cover all households regardless of their phone or internet status and findings can be reported with a margin of sampling error and projected to the general population.

The data were weighted to adjust for gender by age, race/ethnicity, education, Census region, metropolitan status, household income, party ID, and 2020 presidential vote. Party ID benchmarks are from the 2024 NPORS annual survey. The demographic benchmarks came from the 2024 March supplement of the U.S. Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey (CPS). The 2020 presidential vote benchmarks came from the Federal Election Commission.

• Gender (Male, Female) by Age (18–29, 30–44, 45-59 and 60+)
• Race/Hispanic Ethnicity (White Non-Hispanic, Black Non-Hispanic, Other, Non-Hispanic, Hispanic, 2+ Races, Non-Hispanic)
• Education (Less than High School, High School, Some College, Bachelor degree, Master’s degree or above)
• Census Region (Northeast, Midwest, South, West)
• Metropolitan status (Metro, non-Metro)
• Household Income (Under $25,000, $25,000-$49,999, $50,000-$74,999, $75,000-$99,999, $100,000-$149,999, $150,000+)
• Party ID (Democrat, Lean Democrat, Republican, Lean Republican, Independent/Something else)
• Vote Choice 2020 (Biden, Trump, Other/Did not vote/DK)

About Ipsos

Ipsos is one of the largest market research and polling companies globally, operating in 90 markets and employing over 18,000 people.

Our passionately curious research professionals, analysts and scientists have built unique multi-specialist capabilities that provide true understanding and powerful insights into the actions, opinions and motivations of citizens, consumers, patients, customers or employees. Our 75 solutions are based on primary data from our surveys, social media monitoring, and qualitative or observational techniques.

Our tagline "Game Changers" sums up our ambition to help our 5,000 customers move confidently through a rapidly changing world.

Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos has been listed on the Euronext Paris since July 1, 1999. The company is part of the SBF 120 and Mid-60 indices and is eligible for the Deferred Settlement Service (SRD). ISIN code FR0000073298, Reuters ISOS.PA, Bloomberg IPS:FP www.ipsos.com
Source: Ipsos