Credit: NOAA
July 3, 2025 - The Independence Day holiday weekend is upon us! Read on to find out where the barbeque won’t be the only thing sizzling with heat, and where thunderstorms could compete with fireworks for an evening light show:
Monsoon rains on the Southwest’s parade
The early-summer flow of moisture in the Southwestern U.S. will continue to bring widely scattered but drenching downpours to west Texas, New Mexico and eastern Arizona on Thursday and Friday. Dry lightning will also be a risk, especially on the windward side and at higher elevations of the mountains. However, the rain risk for the region decreases as the weekend continues.
The Gulf Coast is likely to be stormy during the holiday weekend, with persistent heavy rain chances throughout the weekend across Florida. Meanwhile, afternoon and evening thunderstorms may dampen fireworks displays in the upper Plains and Midwest on July 4th before the threat moves eastward toward the Great Lakes on Saturday and Sunday, finally settling along the East Coast on Monday.
The heat is on in the Heartland
Temperatures will soar 10-20 degrees F above average from the Upper Plains on Thursday and Friday before a cold front brings relief to the region, shifting the hottest air toward the Great Lakes and Appalachians on Saturday and Sunday. It’ll be a bit hotter than average for most in the Southeast from this Thursday through next Monday, as high temperatures remain in the 90s, even reaching 100 degrees in central and southern Texas.
Temperatures are expected to be below average in the desert Southwest until Sunday due to the monsoon-driven clouds and cooling rains. It will still reach the low triple digits, which is typical for summers in the region.
Windy for the West Coast
A persistent breeze off the Pacific Ocean will lead to high temps well below average up and down the West Coast. Some coastal cities in Washington, Oregon and northern California will be in the 60s from Thursday through the weekend to next Monday.
High & dry in the Northeast
After a workweek of high humidity and rounds of thunderstorms, it finally dries out in the Northeast and New England from Friday through the weekend. Highs in the 80s are expected to start the weekend, but 90s return in cities like New York and Boston by Sunday.
Tropical trouble for Florida?
The stalling frontal system that’s bringing heavy rain to Florida bears a small chance for further development into a tropical storm, according to NOAA’s National Hurricane Center. You can follow the latest updates here.
A tropical system is not expected to develop in the open waters of the Atlantic through the holiday weekend and into early next week. This is great news for beachgoers, as tropical systems far offshore are often responsible for creating powerful rip currents along the East Coast.
Staying safe and healthy in any weather
The NWS Weather Safety page is your one-stop resource to prepare for any type of hazardous weather. Be sure to check out these important summer safety tips and resources before heading outside, and always remember — when thunder roars, go indoors.
Plus:
- To view a customized weather forecast and current conditions for your area, visit weather.gov and enter your ZIP Code.
- Follow @NWS on Xoffsite link, Facebook and via your local NOAA National Weather Service forecast office on social media.
- Swim safely: Learn what a rip current is, what it looks like from the beach and how to survive one.
Happy Fourth of July to all!
Source: NOAA
