Yosemite Valley projected rainfall: 0.50" - 1.00"
February 13, 2024 - National Weather Service Hanford Office officials report a weak system is expected to clip Central California beginning Wednesday night and continuing through Thursday morning.
Light precipitation is expected for the area, with rain below 6,000 feet and snow above 6,000 feet.
Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Hanford CA
334 AM PST Tue Feb 13 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
1. A storm system will impact Central California Wednesday
evening through Thursday afternoon, resulting in generally
light precipitation.
2. A couple of stronger storm systems will impact Central
California Saturday through Monday, resulting in periods of
light to moderate precipitation.
3. There is a moderate risk (40% chance) of heavy rain in the
lower elevations of Central California on Tuesday, February
20th and Wednesday, February 21st, 2024.
4. There is a moderate risk (40% chance) of major to extreme
winter storm impacts in the Sierra Nevada on Tuesday, February
20th and Wednesday, February 21st, 2024.
5. There is a slight risk (20% chance) of high winds in
Central California on Tuesday, February 20th and Wednesday,
February 21st, 2024.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Satellite loops show mainly clear skies prevailing overnight
but some high clouds are spreading in from the northwest. The
High Resolution Ensemble Forecast system shows up to 40 percent
chance for dense fog this morning, focused along the Highway 99
corridor from Merced to Delano. Similar probabilities are shown
for Wednesday morning with the focus remaining along Highway 99.
Maximum temperatures on Monday remained around normal for this
time of the year. Little changes are expected through Wednesday
with high pressure aloft remaining in control. An upper trough
moving in from the Pacific will bring light to moderate rain and
snow Wednesday evening through Thursday afternoon. Probabilities
for one tenth of an inch of rainfall range from 61% at Merced to
46% at Fresno to only 11% at Bakersfield. The probabilities for
one quarter of an inch of rain is 46% at Merced while all other
areas are 30% or less. Snow levels will be near 5500 feet with
probabilities for 6 inches of snow from 57% at Tuolumne Meadows
to only 20% at Lodgepole.
A short wave ridge will move over on Friday for dry weather and
slight warming to around 2 to 5 degrees above normal. A couple
of stronger systems are progged to move in this weekend through
early next week. Probabilities for one quarter inch of rainfall
on Saturday range from 71% at Merced to 56% at Fresno and 21%
at Bakersfield. The snow level will begin around 6500 feet on
Saturday then lower to around 5000 to 6000 on Sunday and Monday.
Probabilities for 12 inches of snowfall this weekend range from
61% at Tuolumne Meadows to 34% at Lodgepole.
Model ensembles continue to advertise the potential for heavier
precipitation through the middle of next week. The latest from
the Climate Prediction Center has California in a moderate risk
(40% chance) for heavy precipitation and heavy snow on Tuesday,
February 20 and Wednesday, February 21. There is also a slight
risk (20% chance) for high winds during the same time frame.
&&
.AVIATION...
Areas of MVFR visibility in mist/haze in the San Joaquin Valley
with local IFR and LIFR conditions in fog through 18Z Tuesday.
Elsewhere, VFR conditions will prevail across the central CA
interior for the next 24 hours.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
On Tuesday February 13 2024, Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status
is: No Burning Unless Registered in Fresno, Kern, Kings, Madera,
and Merced Counties. Burning Discouraged in Tulare County, and
Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia National Park and
Forest.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
Source: NWS
