Timber (Litter and Understory)

Timber (Grass and Understory)

Brush (2 feet)

Narrative:

Fuel moistures are historically low, ERCs and BI are in the 97-99%. Northern California remains under a Fuels and Fire Behavior

Advisory.

Active:

Uphill Runs

Group Torching

Short-range Spotting

Narrative:

Smoke early over the fire kept activity moderated to start the day. Winds associated with the dry cold front arrived as forecasted

and quickly increased fire intensity in the afternoon. Group tree torching with intense short runs caused the fire to make movements

east. Mid range spotting

also contributed to fire

growth throughout the

afternoon. Red Flag Warning in effect from 1500 today through 2300 Tuesday, for strong SW winds. Expect active fire behavior in the East Zone today. Temperatures will be in the high 90's over the next few operational periods. Haines of 5 will introduce unstable air over the incident. Potential for Plume dominated fire behavior due to instability. All Fuels remain available. Fuel moistures remain critically low for both live and dead. The Energy Release Component is just below the 97th percentile and climbing. All thresholds for the

Plumas Central have been

exceeded.

Construct direct and indirect line to secure fire perimeter. Direct line construction in the Westwood area will require a heavy resource

presence.

Provide for service calls within communities impacted by the fire: Chester, Hwy 36 corridor, Hwy 89 Corridor, Paxton, Greenville, Jonesville, Crescent Mills, Taylorsville, Prattville, Canyondam, Butte Meadows, Bucks Lake, Meadows Valley, Rush Creek, Warner Valley, Pecks Valley,

Williams Valley, Hunt

Canyon, Susanville, and

the Greater Almanor area.

Structure defense will continue in communities on the north end of Lake Almanor and in Warner Valley. Continue structure

defense near Willow Dip at the southern end of Lassen Nat'l Park and within the Park itself. Protect threatened areas of Janesville, Indicator Peak and Loan Peak. Heavy mop and patrol of communities impacted by the fire front. "Make Safe" for repopulation.

Crews in the Cradle Valley area are currently performing structure preparations in anticipation of further action in area.

Structure protection continues in the Wilcox Valley region. Resources will be working from Dyer Mountain east to Mountain Meadow Reservoir utilizing direct line to complete

action in that area.

Holding actions from previous firing operations and point protection of communities and critical infrastructure will require a significant

resource presence

for the next several

operational periods.

Continued mop up of and patrol of 1,000-hr fuels will require a significant amount of resources due to the volume of fuels and

the steep and rugged

terrain. In anticipation of the upcoming wind event (8/16 1400-2300hrs), a "flex shift" (noon-noon) will be initiated to ensure complete coverage during

the event.

12 hours:

In anticipation of theupcoming wind event (8/16 1400-300hrs), Wildfire Analyst (WFA) and FSPRO were utilized to assess the potential impacts from fire spread.

**The WFA Probabilistic model was used and assumes no suppression actions.

** In the West Zone - Diamond Branch, models project an 80% chance of the fire reaching Willard Drainage and a 5-20% chance the fire will impact the town of Susanville. Also within the Diamond Branch (East Zone - Branch 22), models project an 80% chance of the fire reaching Wildcat Ridge and a 10-20% chance of impacting the town of Janesville. Success of firing operation (8/14) near Antelope Lake has the potential to reduce fire spread towards

Janesville. In the West Zone - Branch 16, models project a 10% chance the fire will impact Highway 44.

24 hours:

The Red Flag Warning forecasted to expire at 2300 Tuesday. Temperatures will be in the 90's. The atmosphere will be unstable with a Haines of 5. Forecasted winds will be W 26 mph with 10% cloud cover. Fire behavior will consist of

wind driven surface fire, isolated torching and spotting. Moderate overnight recoveries may provide opportunity for line construction and firing operations. Local thresholds will be exceeded. Expect comparable fire behavior as the previous operational period. The fire will most likely spread to the North, Northeast, East due to sustained SW winds.

48 hours:

Moderate Risk burn environment. A dry cold front is forecasted to move through the region. Temperatures will be in the mid 80's today and tomorrow. Winds will be NE 16 mph.10% cloud cover forecasted during the burning period.

Fire behavior would include surface fire potential for group torching, crown runs with alignment and spotting.

Moderate overnight recoveries may provide opportunity for line construction and firing operations. Local thresholds

will be exceeded. Expect an increase in fire activity with clear air.

72hours:

Temperatures will be in the mid 90's over the next few shifts. NW winds forecasted due to the cold front passage.

Expect comparable fire behavior as the previous operational period. Forecasted hot and dry weather through the end of the week.

Anticipated after 72 hours:

Expect similar burning conditions. Temperatures will remain in the high 90s throughout the week.

Continuation

of Box 4: California

Interagency Incident

Management Team 4(CIIMT

4)is in command of the

East Zone. East Zone Unified Command Agencies: Plumas National Forest and Lassen National Forest

CIIMT1 has arrived at the East Zone ICP and has in-briefed with CIIMT4. CIIMT1 will assume command of the East Zone at 0700 on 8/17. CAL FIRE IMT3

is in command of the West Zone. West Zone Unified Command Agencies: Bureau of Land Management, CAL FIRE, Lassen National

Forest, National Park

Service Continuation

of Box 7: 450 acres

of the total acres reported is the Morgan

Fire. 0% containment.

Continuation of Box 25:

The fire area is in portions of Butte, Lassen, Plumas, Shasta, and Tehama counties. Active fronts are in the Greater Lake Almanor area, Lassen

NF, and Lassen NP, as well as on several private timber

ownerships. Continuation of Box 31(J): Civilians in indoor temporary shelters - 88 Civilians

in outdoor temporary shelters - 260 Continuation of Box 32(E): East Zone - 1

responder injury

West Zone - 2 responder

injuries Continuationof

Box 38: Additional threatened values at risk include: Bizz Johnson National Recreation Trail Continuation of Box 48:

Resource count reduced due to reconciliation of assigned resources between East and West Zones.

EAST ZONE:

Weather was active today with the approach of the incoming storm system.

Temperatures this afternoon climbed into the mid to upper 90's and minimum relative humidity values dipped into the teens and low teens. Variable drainage

winds shifted southwest in the afternoon with gusts around 25-30 MPH. Due to the gusty winds, hot temperatures, instability, and low RH a local Red Flag Warning was put into effect from

1500hrs today through

2300hrs Tuesday.

Tonight: mostly clear but locally breezy winds will persist, tapering off around 2200hrs and becoming downslope/down valley. Overnight humidity recoveries will

be poor to moderate.

WEST ZONE:

A significant change in the weather pattern occurred across the incident on Monday.

The dominant upper level ridge of high pressure has been displaced to the southeast by an upper level trough of low pressure. This trough of low pressure brought southwest winds to the incident with 15 to 25 mph gusts common. This resulted in widespread plume dominated fires. It remained very warm and dry across the incident. A cold front will move across on Tuesday which will increase winds even

more with gusts near 40 mph possible and control problems are expected. A local red flag warning

remains in effect through Tuesday.

The smoke did thin out across most of the incident by early afternoon and wind

speeds picked up accordingly. High temperatures climbed into the mid-80s to

mid-90s with humidity in the mid-teens. Southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph occurred in the exposed

areas with light winds

in the valley locations.

Gusty southwest winds will slowly diminish this evening but it will remain warm and dry. Temperatures will still be in the mid-70's to lower 80's in the late evening.